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Amazon, Palantir tipped as AI software buys over Nvidia

Amazon, Palantir tipped as AI software buys over Nvidia

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    An analysis named Amazon and Palantir as AI software plays, citing analyst expectations that their revenue and EPS will grow at CAGRs of 15% and 24%, and 58% and 70%, from 2025 to 2028.

  2. Why it matters

    The two companies are framed as ways to profit from the AI market's expansion without owning chipmakers, and the expected growth rates suggest far faster earnings gains at one than the other.

  3. What to watch

    The figures are analyst expectations, not results, so the case hinges on whether those CAGRs hold; the article also flags Palantir's valuation at 87 times next year's earnings and Amazon's at 25 times.

WHO IT HITSRetail investors weighing AI exposure have a specific pair to compare on valuation and expected growth, while the pitch targets those who would otherwise default to chipmakers for AI upside.

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Context & Analysis

The article's framing is a deliberate reframe of where AI money is made. Rather than the chipmakers that dominate AI investing attention, it points to the software layer supporting the market's expansion, and it picks two very different profiles for that trade. Amazon is presented as the balanced option: a company that still earns most revenue from retail but most operating profit from AWS, whose growth in turn subsidizes the lower-margin retail business.

Palantir is the aggressive option. The article recounts that it declared in its S-1 filing it would become the "default operating system for data across the U.S. government," and that most U.S. government agencies already use its Gotham platform, while Amazon, Walmart and Apple use Foundry. Its Artificial Intelligence Platform, launched in 2023, connects large language models such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude directly to aggregated data, which the article describes as connective tissue rather than just backbone.

The stakes turn on whether the analyst growth expectations materialize and whether investors accept the valuations attached to them. Palantir's premium multiple looks like the sharper test: the article notes it expects its U.S. commercial business to keep growing faster than government, and that military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are expected to push the U.S. military to use Gotham more for mission planning and testing.

FAQ
How fast are Amazon and Palantir expected to grow?
Analysts expect Amazon's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 24%, and Palantir's at 58% and 70%, from 2025 to 2028.
How expensive are the two stocks?
Amazon trades at 25 times next year's earnings and Palantir at 87 times next year's earnings.
What AI products does Amazon offer?
Amazon Web Services hosts Bedrock, which enabled over 100,000 organizations to develop their own generative AI applications, along with SageMaker for training custom AI models and specialized APIs for specific AI tasks.
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