NVIDIA and Micron both posted blockbuster AI infrastructure quarters, but the market rewarded them opposite ways—NVIDIA's stock fell 10.38% while Micron surged 127.9%—reflecting different bets on where AI hardware spending lands in 2026.

What happened

NVIDIA reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.615 billion（約13兆円）, up 85.23% year over year, with Data Center revenue at $75.246 billion（約12兆円）. Micron reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $23.86 billion（約3.8兆円）, up 196.29%, with Cloud Memory revenue reaching $7.75 billion（約1.2兆円） at a 66% operating margin. Since reporting, NVIDIA shares fell to $200.04 while Micron rose to $1,051.77.

Why it matters

NVIDIA's earnings show the scale of AI infrastructure buildout, but the market is pricing in platform durability and China headwinds (zero H20 Data Center shipments this quarter, with forward guidance assuming that stays at zero). Micron's beat signals that memory scarcity is real and persistent; the company's forward P/E of 11 suggests the market still treats it as cyclical despite order books stretching into 2027, whereas NVIDIA's P/E sits near 32. Both stories share a shared risk: softening in hyperscaler capex guidance later in the year could pressure both.

What to watch

NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to $91.0 billion（約15兆円） and Q3 to $33.50 billion（約5.4兆円）; Micron is guiding gross margin to approximately 81%. Polymarket traders give Micron a 95.2% probability of beating quarterly earnings, while NVDA's near-term crowd consensus clusters at $195 to $210. The key variable is whether NVIDIA's $119 billion（約19兆円） in supply commitments converts cleanly and whether Micron's gross margin actually reaches its guided level.