NVIDIA and Micron both posted blockbuster AI infrastructure quarters, but the market rewarded them opposite ways—NVIDIA's stock fell 10.38% while Micron surged 127.9%—reflecting different bets on where AI hardware spending lands in 2026.

Key takeaway

• NVIDIA and Micron both posted record AI infrastructure quarters in early 2026, but the stock market diverged sharply—NVIDIA fell 10.38% while Micron jumped 127.9%—signaling different investor confidence in their growth trajectories.

• NVIDIA's dominance in GPU compute is facing China headwinds and carries a premium valuation (P/E near 32), while Micron's critical role supplying memory for AI accelerators appears undervalued by the market (forward P/E of 11), despite order books stretching into 2027.

• The divergence reflects a bet on whether platform lock-in or memory scarcity will drive returns.

3 Key Points

FAQ

Why did NVIDIA's stock fall after a blockbuster earnings report?

NVIDIA reported revenue of $81.615 billion（約13兆円）, up 85.23% year over year, but shipped zero H20 Data Center units to China this quarter, with forward guidance assuming zero shipments continue. The market may be pricing in platform durability concerns and China headwinds rather than the absolute earnings beat.

What makes Micron's business different from NVIDIA's in AI infrastructure?

NVIDIA sells the compute (GPUs and networking like NVLink), while Micron sells the memory that feeds those GPUs. Micron's Cloud Memory revenue reached $7.75 billion（約1.2兆円） at a 66% operating margin, and the company is the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer, which matters for sovereign AI buyers. Its order books reportedly stretch into 2027.

What is the biggest risk both companies face?

A softening in hyperscaler capex guidance later in the year is the one variable that pressures both NVIDIA and Micron stories at once, since both depend on large cloud providers' willingness to invest in AI infrastructure buildout.