SpaceX GPU rentals could yield $26B annually, key to $1.8T valuation

SpaceX is leveraging its Colossus data center complex—built primarily to support xAI's Grok AI model—as a high-margin compute rental business aimed at closing valuation gaps with investors. In May, the company agreed to provide Anthropic with roughly 325,000 Nvidia GPUs spread across Colossus for $1.25 billion（約2000億円） per month. Weeks later, it secured a similar deal with Google for about 110,000 GPUs for $920 million（約1500億円） per month. These two contracts alone could generate about $26 billion（約4.2兆円） annually for SpaceX, exceeding the company's entire $18.7 billion（約3兆円） revenue in 2024, which came from $11.4 billion（約1.8兆円） in Starlink connectivity services and about $4.1 billion（約6600億円） from launches and other space-related work.

The opportunity emerged because demand for AI compute continues to outpace supply as companies race to build increasingly powerful AI models, and constructing a large data center takes years of development and massive investment. SpaceX's advantage is that it already owns the infrastructure—built in record time. In 2024, xAI brought its first major Colossus cluster online in just 122 days by converting an existing factory. The company has since expanded its Memphis-area complex to roughly 2 million square feet across Colossus and Colossus II, together providing about 1 gigawatts of compute power with a long-term plan to include 1 million GPUs. This existing capacity allows SpaceX to charge a premium to customers needing immediate access.

The compute rental business also provides strategic flexibility. SpaceX can rent capacity to outside customers, reserve resources for training new versions of Grok, or redirect computing power to Starlink's internal uses. Yet both the Anthropic and Google contracts contain a 90-day cancellation clause that creates risk in both directions: SpaceX can reclaim capacity if Grok training needs suddenly spike, but customers can also walk away if cheaper compute capacity becomes available elsewhere. Sridhar Tayur, a professor of operations management at Carnegie Mellon University, cautioned that this built-in exit could signal whether compute rental is a temporary revenue stream or a permanent part of the business.

SpaceX's existing AI segment generated $3.2 billion（約5100億円） in revenue last year but also recorded an operating loss of roughly $6.4 billion（約1兆円）, driven by the substantial costs of training and operating Grok, which has so far lagged behind models from Anthropic and OpenAI in revenue and capabilities. However, analyst Sean Cray of Moody's noted that the compute rental business demonstrates SpaceX has "different pathways for them to generate revenue in their AI segment" beyond Grok itself, providing investors a clearer path to profitability. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that SpaceX is in talks with the Pentagon to provide data-center capacity potentially worth billions of dollars for running AI models—a potential landmark deal that, if finalized, could strengthen the case that selling compute will become a long-term business rather than a temporary one. Meta is also reportedly in advanced talks to lease computing power to Anthropic in a potential $10 billion（約1.6兆円） two-year deal, suggesting the market for rented compute is expanding beyond current agreements.

SpaceX has discovered a surprisingly lucrative revenue stream by capitalizing on a structural imbalance in the AI infrastructure market: demand for computing power continues to outpace supply, and building large data centers requires years of development and massive capital investment. By renting unused GPU capacity from infrastructure already built to support xAI's Grok model, SpaceX can charge premium rates to customers who need computing power immediately. The timing is critical—with OpenAI and partners pursuing the Stargate initiative to build a nationwide data center network, the current shortage of AI infrastructure may not persist indefinitely, making SpaceX's existing capacity particularly valuable in the near term.

The $26 billion（約4.2兆円） in annual revenue from Anthropic and Google contracts alone exceeds SpaceX's entire 2024 revenue of $18.7 billion（約3兆円）, yet the business model carries structural uncertainty. Both contracts include 90-day cancellation provisions that cut both ways: SpaceX can reclaim capacity if internal demand for Grok training intensifies, but customers retain exit rights if cheaper alternatives emerge. Analyst Sean Cray of Moody's notes this creates a question mark around whether compute rental will become a permanent revenue stream or remain temporary—a distinction critical to whether it truly justifies SpaceX's $1.8 trillion（約290兆円） valuation. A potential Pentagon contract reported by the Wall Street Journal, if finalized, could provide evidence that government and enterprise demand for isolated compute infrastructure is durable, not ephemeral.