Upstart reports 77% transaction volume growth in Q1 with $3.4 billion in originations, but operating losses widen despite revenue guidance reaffirmation.

On May 5, Upstart released Q1 results showing transaction volumes up 77%, with total originations at $3.4 billion, a 61% increase from the prior year's quarter. Operating losses came in at $7.5 million, up from $4.5 million in Q1 2025, and net losses at $6.6 million, up nearly threefold from Q1 2025.

Upstart operates as a marketplace where financial institutions use its AI models and cloud-based application to assist with loan underwriting and risk assessment. The company provides technology for auto loans, personal loans, and home equity lines of credit, but has not yet entered the mortgage space.

Management reiterated 2026 guidance calling for $1.4 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, representing a 34% and 27.5% increase, respectively, compared to 2025 results. CEO Paul Gu noted the company plans to continue pursuing a national bank charter while relying primarily on third-party capital rather than becoming a bank itself.

With shares down over 92% from their high-water mark and short interest at around 32% of the outstanding float, the stock trades at 35 times forward earnings. The article notes uncertainty about the company's path to greater profits and that its AI-based underwriting models have yet to face a significant stress test given the post-COVID economy's relative soft landing.