AI infrastructure to take over half of $2.7 trillion AI spend in 2026

Gartner places generative AI in the "trough of disillusionment" on its hype cycle for 2026, yet the same firm expects overall AI-related spending to keep expanding. That split — cooler expectations, bigger budgets — is the backdrop for its latest forecast of $2.7 trillion in worldwide AI spending for 2026, up 49.5% from the prior year.

The composition of that spending is the notable part. AI services ($576.5 billion) and AI software ($461.6 billion) are large, but both are dwarfed by AI infrastructure at $1.4844 trillion. Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock frames the expansion of AI data-center capacity as the largest infrastructure project humanity has undertaken, driven by hyperscaler and service-provider purchases of AI-optimized servers. Gartner adds that this segment has been largely insulated from the price pressure of rising memory-related costs.

On the services side, Lovelock describes a shift in buyer behavior: rather than large transformation engagements, companies are leaning on providers for smaller, indirect projects that tap AI features already embedded in existing software — even as vendor lock-in, data sovereignty and rising cost risks persist. He expects that combination of transformation and indirect projects to create a $1.2 trillion business opportunity in AI services by 2030. Whether that materializes likely hinges on whether enterprises keep adding standalone AI projects, or fold the work into existing platforms, while the infrastructure boom continues to absorb the majority of spending.