What happened
Anthropic's new study says that if robot prices decline along past trends, it will take 40 years for robots to replace just 10% of job tasks, citing capabilities, preferences and regulations as further barriers.
Why it matters
The findings suggest blue-collar workers may have decades before automation reaches them, giving more time for collective action through private-sector and public-policy efforts.
What to watch
Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk echoed the takeaway, writing that widespread physical labor displacement will take decades even under aggressive projections; the range of expert timelines remains the key uncertainty.
WHO IT HITSBlue-collar workers who may face automation, and the policy makers and union organizers planning around those timelines, are the ones most directly affected by the study's stretched forecast.
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The debate over humanoid robots has largely focused on safety, but the sharper disagreement is about timing. Anthropic's new study lands on the far end of that spectrum, concluding that if robot prices decline along past trends, it will take 40 years for robots to replace just 10% of job tasks. The report adds that beyond price, factors including capabilities, preferences and regulations pose further barriers to robot automation.
That conclusion sits in contrast to more optimistic projections. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted at CES in January 2026 a coming "ChatGPT moment" for robotics, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the Optimus robot will go on sale as early as next year. A Morgan Stanley research report from 2025 forecasts the humanoid robot market could surpass $5 trillion by 2050. Other experts, such as Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, have echoed Anthropic's longer view, writing that widespread physical labor displacement will take decades even under aggressive projections.
The divergence reflects a broader tension between fast-moving software and slower hardware. The study's implication for workers and policy makers hinges on whether robot prices continue their historical decline, and on how quickly other barriers fall. Anthropic's findings suggest the timeline may be longer than many in the industry assume, though the wide range of expert forecasts leaves the exact pace of change an open question.
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