Steven Rattner: AI Needed for Productivity Surge

Rattner frames the debate around AI as one of historical continuity. He traces productivity growth from the Industrial Revolution through the internet boom, noting that in the early 1970s productivity growth slowed and has remained depressed for most of the past half-century, with notable exceptions such as the internet boom. He points to economist Robert Solow's 1987 remark that the computer age was visible everywhere but in productivity statistics, only for productivity to rise sharply in the late 1990s, stimulating growth and adding jobs. This historical pattern, he suggests, could repeat with AI.

He also addresses job displacement directly. Rattner acknowledges AI will eliminate jobs in some sectors, just as telephone operators disappeared in the last century, but argues the historical record shows no technological improvement has ultimately failed to create more jobs than it destroyed. He calls for policies to anticipate an AI 'rust belt,' including retraining and educational subsidies for younger workers, wage insurance for displaced older workers, and securing Social Security and Medicare. On safety, he compares AI to nuclear energy, noting that nations have developed atomic energy and weapons with a remarkable safety record despite widespread fears, and suggests that testing, kill switches, and international cooperation—particularly with China—could manage AI risks.