US pushes allies to pick AI bloc as Kazakhstan joins both

The competition is not only over models and chips but over which countries set the rules. Washington frames Pax Silica as a trusted-partner network, with the State Department warning that members cannot substantively back a rival vision. Beijing, by contrast, pitches openness, and its funding reaches at least 77 low- and middle-income countries, according to AidData. That courtship matters because, as Brookings' Kyle Chan notes, Washington already has a strong alliance network while Beijing must win over third countries — giving "swing countries" leverage.

Kazakhstan illustrates the stakes. It holds critical minerals and cheap electricity for data centers, and its government signed an investment deal worth up to $10 billion involving Nvidia for a "data center valley". Yet Chinese FDI hit a record $2.8 billion in 2025, and President Xi Jinping met Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in July to expand Belt and Road cooperation. Harvard scholar Dana Masalimova describes the result as a "very precarious spot" — beneficial now, but exposed if the blocs harden.

The squeeze extends beyond Central Asia. Indonesia, which joined China's organization, says it wants to be part of both, while Singapore weighs joining China's group even as Anthropic opens an Asia office there. Saudi Arabia's Humain built a platform on a Chinese open model while also holding an Nvidia deal. Meanwhile, France's Mistral and Japan's selective use of Chinese models for lower-risk applications suggest even capable economies are avoiding a clean split — a sign the binary choice Washington seeks may be difficult to enforce.