Alphabet's $195B–$205B spending plan fuels chip stock rally despite AI payoff doubts

Alphabet disclosed in its Q2 earnings on Wednesday that it has spent more than $78 billion（約12兆円） in the first half of 2026 and expects total capital expenditures for the full year to fall between $195 billion（約31兆円） and $205 billion（約33兆円）, with expenses concentrated in data centers, networking, and custom silicon. This escalating investment pattern—Alphabet has increased capital expenditures over the past 12 quarters—signals management confidence in the infrastructure demands of AI deployment at scale.

Wall Street strategists view this spending as validation that the broader 'AI trade' remains intact. Mark Mahaney, head of internet research at Evercore ISI, told Yahoo Finance that 'if you're looking for derivative stock calls, the AI trade is still on.' He emphasized that hyperscalers including Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have demonstrated a willingness to deploy capital at a pace 'more than anybody thought possible.' This outlook has rippled through semiconductor equities: memory chipmakers Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Sandisk all surged on Alphabet's disclosure, supported by tight supply conditions that have allowed them to raise prices. Intel, meanwhile, reported earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, fueled by strong demand for central processing units as the tech industry pivots toward AI agents. The stock is up 14% year to date, buoyed by Trump administration support, backing from Nvidia, and reports that its foundry division has secured Google as a customer for manufacturing custom chips.

However, investor sentiment has begun to fracture over whether the scale of spending will ultimately justify the capital deployment. On Thursday, while Alphabet and other 'Magnificent Seven' stocks suffered their steepest decline since April 2025, semiconductor plays held ground, underscoring a shift toward so-called 'maker' stocks—those that supply the infrastructure—over 'taker' stocks that consume it. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has pulled back from its June record high but remains up 66% year to date and 111% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gains of 8% and 16%, respectively. Some strategists, including Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson, warn against indiscriminate semiconductor exposure, noting that 'there are two types of semis right now'—a signal that sector-wide gains mask divergent fortunes among different chipmaker categories.

The semiconductor sector has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the so-called 'AI trade,' driven by hyperscaler capital expenditure plans from companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. Alphabet's announcement that it expects 2026 capex to fall between $195 billion（約31兆円） and $205 billion（約33兆円） reflects the magnitude of infrastructure investment these firms are undertaking to build out AI capabilities. As Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI noted, these 'massive companies with massive amounts of cash and lots of potential leverage' are willing to spend far more on infrastructure than previously anticipated, creating what some strategists call a 'makers versus takers' divergence in the AI ecosystem.

Within this landscape, different semiconductor segments have performed unevenly. Memory chipmakers have benefited from supply shortages that allow them to raise prices, while processor makers like Intel have gained from surging demand for CPUs supporting AI agents. Intel's 14% year-to-date gain reflects both this fundamental demand and support from the Trump administration and partnerships with major customers seeking custom chip manufacturing. The broader PHLX Semiconductor Index has significantly outperformed the wider market, up 66% year to date and 111% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 8% and 16%, respectively.

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