Microsoft, AMD poised to outperform as data center spending nears $3 trillion（約480兆円） by 2028

The investment thesis rests on a simple premise: artificial intelligence adoption is driving sustained global investment in data center infrastructure, and two chip and software companies are uniquely positioned to benefit. Morgan Stanley forecasts that global data center construction spending will reach nearly $3 trillion（約480兆円） by 2028, a figure that signals both the scale of the opportunity and the runway for growth over the next several years.

Microsoft is the larger and more mature of the two plays. Its AI segment is growing explosively: annual recurring revenue from AI services surged 123% year over year to $37 billion（約5.9兆円）. Beyond AI, Microsoft 365 commercial cloud revenue is showing strong growth as well. The company has accumulated a backlog of $627 billion（約100兆円） in remaining performance obligations—essentially future revenue that is already contracted but not yet earned. Management expects 25% of that backlog to be earned in the next 12 months, providing visibility into near-term revenue. To fulfill these obligations, Microsoft is on track to double its data center capacity over the next two years. This is an enormous capital commitment, and Wall Street is concerned about the near-term earnings impact. Microsoft is expected to spend roughly $190 billion（約30兆円） on capital expenditures this year, which will pressure free cash flow. However, management has signaled that these assets are expected to generate returns over a longer time frame, spanning five to 15 years—a horizon that suggests the market may be underestimating the long-term value creation. To fund this expansion, Microsoft generated $170 billion（約27兆円） in cash flow from operations over the last year, money that is being deployed into data center infrastructure and custom AI chip design (the Maia chip). The stock has fallen 30% from recent highs, which the article frames as a buying opportunity. On valuation, Microsoft trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20, and analysts project earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 16% over the next several years—an attractive combination that could support outperformance.

Advanced Micro Devices is the more aggressive opportunity. AMD shares have surged 157% year to date, but the article argues this could be the start of a longer bull run through the end of the decade. The growth driver is demand for AI inference—the computational step where an AI model processes a user query and produces an answer. As new agentic AI tools like OpenAI's OpenClaw and Anthropic's Claude Cowork have launched, demand for inference has become more pronounced. Inference is computationally intensive and requires many central processing units (CPUs) to handle certain tasks. AMD offers a range of CPUs from 8-core to advanced 256-core designs that can meet customer needs at relatively low cost. In the first quarter, AMD's server CPU revenue grew more than 50% year over year, and management reported that share gains against Intel accelerated in the quarter, driven partly by a strong ramp for AMD's next-generation EPYC Turin CPUs. Beyond CPUs, AMD is also positioned for accelerating demand for data center graphics processing units (GPUs). In 2025, AMD acquired ZT Systems, a company specializing in complete rack-system design for data centers. This acquisition is significant because it brings AMD into competition with Nvidia in the lucrative business of delivering integrated data center solutions. AMD's new Helios rack-scale architecture is expected to begin shipping in the second half of 2026. Even before Helios ramps, AMD's data center revenue is already robust, up 57% year over year in Q1. The trade-off is valuation: AMD shares trade at a high forward P/E of 74x, a multiple that reflects market expectations for rapid growth. Analysts expect earnings to grow about 59% annually over the coming years, which if realized could justify the current valuation and support continued outperformance. Near-term headwinds in AMD's gaming and consumer PC business are acknowledged but are expected to be overshadowed by enterprise and cloud demand.

The article positions Microsoft and Advanced Micro Devices as beneficiaries of a structural shift in corporate spending toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Morgan Stanley's $3 trillion（約480兆円） data center projection by 2028 provides the economic backdrop—a sustained multi-year investment cycle that favors companies with the scale and technology to serve hyperscalers (large cloud providers). Microsoft's position rests on two strengths: a massive backlog of $627 billion（約100兆円） in remaining performance obligations (25% expected to be earned in the next 12 months) and the operational cash generation ($170 billion（約27兆円） annually) needed to fund a doubling of data center capacity over two years. The company acknowledges that heavy capital spending will pressure near-term earnings, but management frames these assets as five- to 15-year bets, implying the market may be undervaluing long-term returns. AMD's advantage is more tactical: it is winning server CPU share from Intel (a multi-year trend that accelerated in Q1) and the 2025 ZT Systems acquisition gives it the design and integration capabilities to offer complete rack systems—a capability that was previously limited to Nvidia among chip vendors. The second-half 2026 launch of Helios represents a near-term catalyst for AMD's data center GPU ambitions. Both stocks are being evaluated on growth multiples that the article suggests may be justified: Microsoft at a forward P/E of 20 with 16% projected earnings growth, and AMD at 74x forward P/E with 59% projected earnings growth, though AMD's valuation is acknowledged as elevated.

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