Thiel Macro: 42% in Amazon, Vistra Energy AI bets

Thiel Macro's portfolio is unusually concentrated: two positions account for 42% of the book, and the pair is split between the computing side of AI (Amazon) and the electricity side (Vistra Energy). The Amazon case rests on both retail and cloud: hundreds of generative AI applications for inventory placement, demand forecasting and last-mile delivery, and AWS offering infrastructure, platform and software services plus custom AI accelerator chips positioned as a cheaper alternative to Nvidia GPUs. In the second quarter AWS revenue rose 37%, the fastest growth in more than four years, and CEO Andy Jassy told analysts the company is "unusually well-positioned for this AI inflection." The Vistra case rests on demand for power. Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. data center power demand will reach 66 GW next year, more than double 31 GW last year, while analysts estimate U.S. electricity demand will compound at 3.5% annually through 2030, up from roughly 0% the previous decade. Vistra sells electricity from nuclear, natural gas, coal and renewable plants into wholesale markets and directly to residential and commercial customers, and has signed long-term power purchase agreements — a 2.6 GW, two-decade nuclear deal with Meta Platforms and a similar one with Amazon — that provide long-term revenue visibility.