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Large Language ModelsAI Safety & AlignmentTHE DECODERPublished: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00 JST

Hassabis cuts AGI timeline to two to three years

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Hassabis cuts AGI timeline to two to three years

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Demis Hassabis now says AGI could arrive within two to three years, down from three to five years earlier this year, he told the Wall Street Journal.

  2. Why it matters

    The founder of Google DeepMind has now shortened his own forecast twice, which suggests expectations among senior AI figures are compressing toward nearer-term timelines, though this is one expert's estimate rather than a consensus.

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Context & Analysis

Hassabis's revised timeline is notable because it is the second compression he has made this year — from three to five years down to two to three — and he acknowledged the pattern directly, saying his estimate keeps moving closer to the present. He has also framed the stakes in stark terms, comparing AGI's impact to "10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed." Alongside that forecast, he has proposed an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release, warning that bad regulation is worse than none. Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, his day-to-day focus is Isomorphic Labs, Google's drug discovery AI spin-off, which sits at the application end of the same technology he expects to arrive sooner than before.

FAQ
What is Hassabis's definition of AGI?
He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain.
What does Hassabis say about AI safety regulation?
He has pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release, and warns that bad regulation is worse than none.
What is Hassabis focused on now?
Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, he has focused on Google's drug discovery AI spin-off Isomorphic Labs.
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