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JPMorgan lifts 2027 US IG bond forecast to record $2.1T on AI build

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JPMorgan lifts 2027 US IG bond forecast to record $2.1T on AI build

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    JPMorgan strategists Nathaniel Rosenbaum and Eric Beinstein now expect $2.1T of US investment-grade bond issuance in 2027, a record, and lifted their five-year data-center high-grade bond call from $1.5T to $2.1T.

  2. Why it matters

    The bank attributes the record supply primarily to the AI buildout, making data centers and related infrastructure the central driver of high-grade issuance over the next several years.

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Context & Analysis

JPMorgan's revision is a direct response to the scale of AI infrastructure spending, which is increasingly being financed through the corporate bond market. The bank now sees $2.1T of US investment-grade issuance in 2027, a record, with the AI buildout cited as the biggest driver. That call represents a sharp upgrade from its earlier view: five-year data-center high-grade issuance is now expected at $2.1T, up from $1.5T.

The breakdown of net new supply shows where the pressure is concentrated. Tech and media account for $612B, split roughly evenly between hyperscalers and data-center and chip-related financing. This suggests the borrowing need is not limited to a handful of cloud giants but extends to the semiconductor and data-center ecosystem supporting them.

For bond investors, the forecast implies a heavier calendar of high-grade deals tied to AI infrastructure, which could shape supply-demand dynamics in the investment-grade market over the coming years.

FAQ
Who are the JPMorgan strategists behind the forecast?
Nathaniel Rosenbaum and Eric Beinstein.
How much of the net new supply comes from tech and media?
Tech and media account for $612B of net new supply, with roughly $225B from hyperscalers and another roughly $225B for data-center and chip-related financing.
What did JPMorgan change about its data-center bond forecast?
It lifted its five-year data-center high-grade bond call from $1.5T to $2.1T.
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