Super Micro drops 5% to $31.15 ahead of November 3 earnings report

Super Micro's slide comes on top of a 23% decline over the past month, even as the shares remain up 8% year to date. The selloff began on October 30, when Super Micro fell 4% amid a broad AI selloff that followed a weak outlook from Intel; the S&P 500 fell 2% and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 3% that day, while Intel plunged 29% after releasing a weak profit forecast.

The tension for Super Micro is that its preliminary September-quarter revenue of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion sits well above prior guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, yet management guided Q1 gross margin to 10.4% to 10.8% — far below the 17.6% non-GAAP gross margin posted in Q4 FY2026. CEO Charles Liang called the prior quarter's revenue shortfall "purely a timing story." Memory shortages are a stated concern: on Dell's September 1 call, Jeff Clarke described supply limits as "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND." Super Micro's concentration in AI infrastructure leaves it more exposed than Dell or HPE to swings in AI server timing and pricing.

Bears also point to fiscal 2026 operating cash outflow of $6.8 billion from a working capital build, a heavy inventory position and the board's independent review tied to export-control matters. Bulls cite the preliminary revenue range and the record backlog carried into fiscal 2027. Analyst sentiment is lukewarm: 11 of 19 analysts rate the stock Hold and 3 at Sell or Strong Sell, with an average price target of $43.27.