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Micron vs Sandisk: AI memory demand drives both, Micron edges ahead

Micron vs Sandisk: AI memory demand drives both, Micron edges ahead

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Micron Technology and Sandisk Corporation are both benefiting from a memory shortage driven by AI infrastructure buildout. Sandisk's Q4 fiscal 2026 sales jumped 372% to $8.9 billion, while Micron's fiscal Q3 sales rose 345% to nearly $41.5 billion.

  2. Why it matters

    The memory crunch is pushing prices higher and profits up sharply. Sandisk's non-GAAP earnings soared from $0.29 per share to $39.25 per share, and Micron's adjusted earnings spiked over 1,300% to $24.67 per share. Counterpoint Research estimates memory will be in short supply at least through 2027.

  3. What to watch

    The article's author would pick Micron over Sandisk because Micron sells both DRAM and NAND memory, while Sandisk only sells NAND. Watch whether NAND market revenue approaches $500 billion in calendar year 2027, as Sandisk's CFO projects.

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Context & Analysis

The root cause of these blockbuster results is a supply-demand imbalance. Tech companies are rapidly expanding data centers for AI, straining memory supplies and pushing prices higher. Counterpoint Research's estimate that shortages will last through 2027 suggests the favorable conditions may persist for a while.

Both companies are riding this wave, but their exposures differ. Sandisk sells only NAND flash memory, while Micron sells both NAND and DRAM. This broader portfolio is why the article's author gives Micron the slight edge, even though Sandisk's earnings per share growth looks more dramatic on a percentage basis.

The key variable going forward is whether the memory shortage actually persists as projected. If AI-driven demand continues to outpace supply, both stocks could see further gains. However, the sustainability of these elevated prices will likely hinge on whether tech companies maintain their current pace of data center investment.

FAQ
What were Sandisk's latest quarterly results?
Sandisk's sales jumped 372% to $8.9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP earnings soared from $0.29 per share a year ago to $39.25 per share.
What is the NAND memory market forecast?
Sandisk estimates the NAND market will exceed $300 billion this year, a 3 times increase from 2025. The company's CFO projects it will approach $500 billion in revenue in calendar year 2027.
What are the average price targets for these stocks?
The average analyst price target for Sandisk is $2,125, representing 37% upside. For Micron, the average target is $1,513, a 62% increase from its current price.
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