Anthropic IPO: SpaceX warns of $2.7 trillion debut trap

SpaceX's IPO was one of the most anticipated public offerings in years, and it initially looked like a success — a $2.7 trillion valuation after raising nearly $86 billion. The reversal came as investors focused on the company's AI spending. Its capital expenditures jumped 308% in the first six months of this year compared to 2025, reaching $28.5 billion, while sales were just $12.5 billion over that same period. SpaceX owns the Grok chatbot and is building Colossus data centers, and 86% of its capex went to AI.

That reaction matters for Anthropic because Anthropic has said recently it has an annualized revenue run rate of $65 billion, nearly seven times its total sales in 2025, but it has not disclosed its capex yet. The article suggests Anthropic is spending heavily to build AI capacity, likely much more than SpaceX, so the sticker shock could be greater.

Against that, Jefferies research spanning more than two decades of IPOs shows companies worth $10 billion or more average a 26.5% return in their first week, but only 3.5% over the first 12 months. The article notes that investors are skeptical of high AI spending and that recent calls for an AI slowdown are hammering tech stocks. The outcome for Anthropic's IPO appears to hinge on whether its capex disclosure triggers the same concern, and on whether the historical pattern of a fizzle after the first week repeats.