TI leans on U.S. 300mm build as AI demand supports capacity bet

Investors and analysts have been split over Texas Instruments. Some worry about rising capital spending and slower past growth, while others are optimistic that industrial, automotive and data center recovery — especially AI infrastructure — can better utilize the new U.S.-based 300mm capacity. That split is visible in how differently the outlook is framed: the narrative sees $29.2 billion revenue and $11.4 billion earnings by 2029, implying 14.5% yearly revenue growth and a $5.4 billion earnings increase from $6.0 billion today, yielding a $324.71 fair value, a 13% upside to the current price. By contrast, some of the lowest-ranked analysts assume revenue of about US$26.4 billion and earnings of roughly US$10.2 billion by 2029. The GE Appliances deal stands out among recent announcements because it ties the domestic 300mm capacity and "geopolitically dependable" supply pitch to a real customer commitment, which arguably matters if utilization and cost efficiency are short-term catalysts. Still, against robust AI headlines, the possibility that higher depreciation and slower industrial or automotive demand could quietly squeeze margins is a risk investors may want to keep in view.