Goldman Sachs: AI networking market to surge to $154 billion（約25兆円） by 2028

Goldman Sachs' April 2026 report identifies networking as the next major investment cycle in AI infrastructure, shifting focus beyond the GPU dominance of the past three years. The thesis rests on a fundamental constraint: as Nvidia transitions through successive chip generations—from Blackwell to Vera Rubin and eventually Rubin Ultra—the volume of data flowing between thousands of processors is expanding far faster than compute capacity alone. Networking value per system is projected to climb nearly 29-fold, forcing a wholesale migration from electrical to optical interconnects.

This transition has material implications for the optical components supply chain. The pluggable optical modules market alone could grow roughly 10-fold, while the total optical components market expands roughly 13-fold as optics migrate beyond traditional rack-to-rack networking into shorter-reach connections inside AI systems themselves. Co-packaged optics—where optical modules are integrated directly into chip packaging—are expected to capture 59% of AI networking spend by 2028, though the primary risk to investors is slower-than-projected adoption timelines. For companies like Lumentum, whose business focuses nearly entirely on optical communications, the addressable market expansion from $15 billion（約2.4兆円） to $154 billion（約25兆円） represents potential revenue sensitivity far greater than diversified competitors.

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