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RoboticsAI Watch (Impress)Published: Nov 13, 2026, 13:01 JST

矢野経済研究所: Physical AI robot shipments to hit 3.21 million by 2035

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矢野経済研究所: Physical AI robot shipments to hit 3.21 million by 2035

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Yano Research Institute, announcing results on Nov 13, projects global Physical AI robot shipments of about 3.21 million units by 2035, up from about 70,000 in 2025 and a 47.7% year-on-year rise to about 100,000 in 2026.

  2. Why it matters

    The research firm says the basis of competition is shifting from individual hardware performance and control precision to system integration across sensing, AI inference, control and actuation, suggesting buyers will increasingly judge robots on how well these pieces work together.

WHO IT HITSThe forecast lands on robotics and automation buyers—manufacturers running industrial and collaborative robots, logistics operators using AGVs and AMRs, and service and drone operators—who may see vendors compete more on integrated AI-driven systems than on individual hardware specs.

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Context & Analysis

Yano Research Institute's survey, released on Nov 13, frames today's Physical AI robot market as being at a stage of demonstration and early commercialization, where performance and economics are being verified for specific tasks and limited environments. The categories it tracks span industrial and collaborative robots, AGVs and AMRs, humanoid and quadruped robots, service robots and drones, and the firm says development and demonstration are spreading across these to handle non-standard environments where object placement and surrounding conditions change.

The forecast rests on an expected evolution from systems that execute fixed motions to autonomous systems that understand their environment and generate and adjust actions accordingly, driven by progress in AI models, data and control software. Demand is projected to grow mainly in areas that conventional automation has found difficult, such as high-mix production and non-standard work, with labor shortages, rising labor costs and the need to secure manufacturing competitiveness cited as background.

FAQ
How does Yano Research Institute define a Physical AI–equipped robot?
It counts robots newly introduced from 2025 onward where AI-based recognition of the environment and work targets, and its judgments, directly feed into actual movement, work actions and control.
Which robot categories are covered in the forecast?
The seven main fields include industrial robots, collaborative robots, AGVs and AMRs, humanoid robots, quadruped robots, service robots and drones.
Where can I find the full details of the survey?
The details are compiled in the market research report '2026 Edition: Current Status and Future Outlook of the Physical AI Market,' priced at 330,000 yen.
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