Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund, which has returned 1,000% since inception and now manages $20 billion（約3.2兆円）, is doubling down on energy-intensive AI infrastructure—particularly Nebius and CoreWeave—betting that compute providers, not just chip makers, will capture the most value as AGI approaches.

What happened: Situational Awareness, a hedge fund run by 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, holds Nebius (a necloud AI data center operator) at roughly 38.89% of its portfolio and has also bet heavily on CoreWeave. Aschenbrenner published a 165-page manifesto pointing to artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2027 and has positioned the fund to profit from the infrastructure needed to power that shift.

Why it matters: Aschenbrenner's fund has identified what it sees as a critical bottleneck: the energy and power systems required to keep GPU clusters running at full speed. While most investors focus on chip makers like Nvidia, Aschenbrenner appears to view infrastructure providers—companies that handle energy, connectivity, servers, and compute distribution—as the real chokepoint of the AI revolution. This reflects a bet that as AI capability advances, the scarcity moves from chips themselves to the power and resources needed to operate them.

What to watch: Nebius shares have gained more than 950% in the past two years, yet Aschenbrenner has added a hefty position to it. The fund is betting on rapid profitability gains and the company's positioning as a critical piece of AI infrastructure, signaling that investors tracking AI opportunity flows may want to monitor whether compute providers outperform chip vendors in the years ahead.