Investor doubts on AI pile up at AlphaMarket 2026

The AI investment boom has been fueled by enormous sums: about two-thirds of S&P 500 returns since 2024 have come from 42 AI stocks, and almost all venture dollars this year are flowing into AI, with some firms nearing trillion-dollar valuations. But at Alpha Partners' AlphaMarket 2026 conference, investors voiced concerns that the consensus may be cracking. They highlighted that the boom is financed on borrowed money, with circular deals adding to the fog, and that the buildout is expensive and could take decades to pay off. CoreWeave's $52 billion in liabilities was cited as an example of risk without a clear path to repayment. One fund manager summed up the tension: costs will come down and adoption will go up, but the timing is unknown.

Private markets present different dynamics. Exits are taking longer, with 33,575 unsold PE-backed firms as of June 30—more than double a decade earlier—and VC funding rounds stretching to Series G. Investor panic plays out differently, as Forge Global CEO Kelly Rodrigues noted: falling prices and fears slow activity in secondary markets because sellers don't want to mark down assets and buyers wait for discounts.

Consumer sentiment also matters, as the American consumer accounts for about 70% of GDP. Many are stressed by energy prices, wage stagnation, rising interest rates, and an affordability crisis, and most don't want more data centers and think AI is developing too fast. They're worried about jobs, don't trust AI leaders, and think the playing field is unfair, and they're about to vote in the midterms. Against this backdrop, the Anthropic IPO could be a barometer for sentiment across public and private markets. Anthropic has set up a public benefit fund for 5% of the shares and hired a Harvard astrophysicist to the trust that controls its board. CEO Dario Amodei has to convince the public that his company is a good buy and he's a good guy. A tepid debut wouldn't just hurt Anthropic and its backers; it could set back other AI companies hoping to raise capital.