Micron sees memory demand as 'early innings' as market heads toward $1 trillion（約160兆円）

Micron Technology has emerged as one of the largest beneficiaries of surging memory chip demand as technology companies have ramped up data center infrastructure spending in recent years. On the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra articulated a bullish vision of the company's long-term prospects, stating that "the memory industry has been structurally transformed by the proliferation of AI" and that "we are only in the early innings of the significant innovation and productivity that can be unleashed in every part of the global economy over time." This perspective directly addresses concerns that the booming memory market might represent another cyclical peak rather than a durable structural shift. McKinsey research cited in the company's outlook supports this view, forecasting that the overall AI semiconductor market will reach between $1.5 trillion（約240兆円） and $1.8 trillion（約290兆円） by 2030, with memory processors accounting for nearly 30% of that total.

Mehrotra's bullish stance extends beyond data centers. He highlighted robotics, humanoids, and fully autonomous vehicles as nascent markets headed for rapid expansion, noting that "exciting possibilities enabled by robotics and humanoids, as well as fully autonomous vehicles, portend a robust long-term demand environment for memory and storage." These emerging technologies will require substantial memory capacity to support advanced AI systems capable of making complex real-time decisions. Morgan Stanley estimates there will be 1 billion humanoid robots globally by 2050, with a potential market size of $5 trillion（約800兆円）, lending credibility to Mehrotra's long-term outlook. The overall memory market is forecast to reach more than $1 trillion（約160兆円） by 2027, up from over $800 billion（約130兆円） this year, providing a clear trajectory of expanding opportunity ahead.

Micron's financial performance reflects its success in capturing this wave of memory demand. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company's sales surged 45% to nearly $41.5 billion（約6.6兆円）, while its non-GAAP adjusted earnings jumped more than 1,300% year over year to $24.67 per share. Over the past year, Micron's stock has risen 687%, rewarding investors who positioned themselves early in this cycle. Despite this strong performance, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 23, below the tech sector average of 37, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in the full potential of the long-term memory demand cycle that management believes is still in its early stages.

The memory chip market has historically been characterized by sharp cyclical swings—periods of surging demand and rising prices followed by oversupply and price collapses as competitors expand capacity simultaneously. Micron and investors have long grappled with the question of whether any surge in memory demand represents a durable trend or merely another up phase in this predictable cycle. What distinguishes the current AI-driven expansion, according to both McKinsey research cited in the article and Micron's management, is its structural rather than cyclical nature. CEO Mehrotra's framing is notably comprehensive: he points not only to the continuing data center buildout but also to robotics, humanoids, and autonomous vehicles as emerging technologies that will require substantial memory capacity. Morgan Stanley's projection of 1 billion humanoid robots globally by 2050 with a $5 trillion（約800兆円） market opportunity suggests the potential runway is indeed long. The market forecast—from over $800 billion（約130兆円） this year to more than $1 trillion（約160兆円） by 2027, with AI memory becoming nearly 30% of a $1.5 trillion（約240兆円）–$1.8 trillion（約290兆円） AI semiconductor market by 2030—supports the premise that memory demand faces years of sustained growth rather than a near-term peak followed by contraction.

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